American Investment in Congo’s Minerals Faces Challenge as China Maintains Copper and Cobalt Dominance

American Mining Investment in DRC Unlikely to Disrupt China’s Dominance in Copper and Cobalt Supply Chains

A year after the signing of the Washington Agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, researchers say growing US interest in Congolese minerals is unlikely to significantly change China’s dominance of the country’s copper and cobalt supply chains.

Researchers Jason Stearns and Joshua Walker, speaking at an event hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera, said the agreement’s economic ambitions face major challenges and that the diplomatic initiative has reached a difficult stage.

Stearns said the US strategy of using diplomatic influence to secure greater access to critical minerals and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains must be assessed against industrial realities.

“The objective is to use US diplomatic influence to gain better access to Congolese resources and reduce China’s role in supply chains. The question is whether this can actually deliver the intended results,” he said.

US mining projects still uncertain

Several potential US-linked investments in the DRC remain at the negotiation stage, including discussions involving Gécamines, Mercuria Energy Group, KoBold Metals and other mining players.

Stearns highlighted proposed transactions such as Chemaf’s potential acquisition by Virtus Mining, KoBold Metals’ interest in Congolese lithium opportunities, and possible US participation in assets linked to Glencore.

However, he noted that many of these plans have yet to be finalised, with financing and ownership structures still uncertain.

China’s influence extends beyond mine ownership

According to Stearns, even if all proposed US investments proceed, they are unlikely to fundamentally reshape the DRC’s mining sector.

He said China’s influence is not based only on ownership of mining assets but extends across the entire value chain, including project financing, mineral processing, refining, logistics and links to battery manufacturing industries.

“Controlling a mine in the DRC does not mean controlling the entire mining sector. The processing, transport and marketing networks remain largely connected to China,” he said.

The researchers concluded that increased US investment could provide the DRC with greater partner diversification, but it is unlikely to immediately alter China’s dominant role in global copper and cobalt markets.

Washington Agreement faces challenges

Stearns also assessed progress under the Washington Agreement, describing it as a positive but imperfect step.

He said that, one year after its signing, efforts to advance the peace process have shown limited progress.

The lack of significant movement highlights ongoing challenges facing both the security and economic objectives linked to the agreement.